This Mythical Patek Philippe Steel 1518 Is Poised to Rewrite Auction History in Geneva

This story is from an installment of In the Loupe, our weekly insider newsletter about the best of the watch world. Sign up here. It is eight days before Phillips’ biggest watch auction of the year—the Decade One sale taking place in Geneva Nov. 8-9—and Aurel Bacs, the auctioneer who, together with his wife and partner, Livia Russo, founded the house’s watch department in November 2014, is a bundle of nervous energy. “Anything can go left or right in the next eight days,” he tells Robb Report on a video call from his office in Geneva. “I’m sitting on a keg of dynamite.” “I had a crowned head of state text me a week ago and say, ‘Aurel, it’s now the third time I’m going through your catalog. This is the Godzilla of watch auctions,’” Bacs adds. “It didn’t sound very elegant, but it sounded as if he found it impressive.” With some 200 lots valued at a collective $32 million at their low estimates, the sale, which celebrates the auctioneer’s first decade in the watch business, is Phillips’s most valuable watch auction ever. But even if it was reduced to a single timepiece—lot 23, to be specific—the result would likely still be impressive. That’s because lot 23 is no run-of-the-mill collectible, says Bacs: “It is the key lot in the sale. It is the key lot of the season. And it is the key lot of the year.” Manufactured by Patek Philippe in 1943, the model is a Ref. 1518 perpetual calendar chronograph in steel, one of four known to exist and the No. 1 piece at that. Estimated to fetch in excess of 8 million Swiss francs, or about $9.9 million, the timepiece is considered by many experts to be a watch-collecting endgame. To understand why, Bacs explains, it’s important to consider the horological context from which it emerged. “In the ’20s, Patek Philippe made maybe five complicated wristwatches per year,” he says. “And they were either some form of calendar indication or some form of chronograph.” The earliest examples of Patek chronograph wristwatches were pendant watches whose movements had been flipped to meet rising demand for wristwatches in the aftermath of World War I. “From that rather primitive form, they said, ‘Oh, we can do better,’ and brought the cushion-shaped watch,” Bacs says. “And from there came the birth of the Ref. 130 in ’33. That is when any chronograph, any moon phase started to have this Calatrava shape.” A special order by King Farouk of Egypt set the stage for the next evolution of the Patek chronograph. Instead of settling for a simple Ref. 130, he commissioned in the late 1930s a unique piece featuring additional complications. “And from that one-off in 1941, Patek Philippe brought out the reference 1518,” Bacs said. Introduced in yellow gold, the model, the first serially produced watch to combine a chronograph and perpetual calendar, went into production during World War II. Unlike its predecessors, the 1518, made in just 281 examples, featured a distinct dial layout that, according to Bacs, has influenced every single perpetual calendar chronograph that has been produced in the decades since. “First and foremost, two windows above the center, the date at the bottom, the chronograph activated with two pushers,” Bacs says, holding lot 23 up to the camera. “This is a layout from 1941 that has survived now 84 years. Because after the 1518 came the 2499, with the first series in the ’50s, the second series in the late’50s, the third series in the early ’60s, and the fourth series in the early ’80s. Then came the 3970 in 1986. Then came the 5970. And that brings us to the 5270 that you can buy today for $287,000 at Patek Philippe. And it has not changed in its concept. Yes, we’ve seen shapes and engines evolve, but conceptually, it’s the Adam and Eve moment of perpetual calendar chronograph wristwatches.” Beyond its horological relevance, the 1518 in steel to be sold at Phillips this week has the kind of provenance that makes collectors go weak in the knees. “They made three in stainless steel at the end of ’43, and delivered two to Budapest in February ’44,” Bacs says. “What did Budapest in February 1944 look like? You’ve got German troops retreating on one side. You’ve got Allied bombardments; Soviet troops coming from the east, moving west; the Budapest population hiding in basements. And there was a Mr. Joseph Lang, who, according to Patek’s book, took delivery of two stainless-steel 1518s. “Was it a way to compress wealth into the smallest form, one here, one there, [and] run?” Bacs says. “We don’t know. We believe he was a retailer. So that means he placed that order—No. 1, No. 2—for someone else. No. 3 was sold to Zurich, Switzerland, to [the retailer] Bayer. And then in ’48, they made one extra that we speculate was the personal watch of the last king of Iraq.” In the early 1980s, the steel 1518s began to appear on the secondary market. “The first one popped up in New York on 47th Street for $4,000 or $5,000,” Bacs says. Eventually, both steel models ordered by Joseph Lang came back to market via Vienna. It was the 1990s, and Bacs was a novice auctioneer. “I was actually offered one of them and lost it to a dealer who just put up cash quicker,” he says. The steel models then began to circulate between dealers from Milan to Miami. In 2016, the No. 1 piece came to auction at Phillips and made $11 million, “which still today is the highest price ever paid for a vintage Patek Philippe wristwatch,” Bacs says. “The gentleman had it for nine years. And nine years later, he said, ‘Well, I got it from you. I’ll bring it to you for the auction.’” Although the model is estimated to fetch at least 8 million Swiss francs, some people have speculated that it could break 20 million francs. Bacs, for his part, insists that any amount is reasonable. “Whether it’s 10, 20, 30 or whatever, the person [who buys it] can only be called crazy when you prove they made a stupid decision,” he says. “And the only stupid thing is to pay 20 if you or I or anyone could find elsewhere, another identical one for 10. But what will happen if we sell it for 20? What will the other three owners who will follow the auction do? What will they ask potentially for their examples the next minute? The guy who bought it for 20 was actually a really smart guy—he bought the least expensive one of the four.” ## Implicazioni per i Collezionisti di Asset di Lusso Questo sviluppo del mercato evidenzia l'importanza crescente della **gestione digitale degli asset di lusso**. 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